October 24, 2008 at 10:58 pm | In Not the most useful posts... | 2 Comments
Tags: 17 dollars, barrel, blackmail, credit crunch, green, green energy, oil, OPEC, people are not stupid, soaring prices
I remember reading an article somewhere (can’t remember where exactly) a few years ago about oil shooting to $170 and then dropping to $17 a barrel.
At that time, the oil was at $30 a barrel (if I’m not mistaken). I thought it was crazy, how will people be able to buy for nearly $5 a gallon. But that happened, and then it stopped. Why did it happen and why did it stop?
It happened because there was no one to stop it at that time, we live in a free market, controlled by supply and demand, the demand however, increased artificially because of the stock markets, which explained the huge increase of the price of the Oil.
It stopped because of the following:
- People are not stupid. Anyone thinking the opposite is completely mistaken, when you try to blackmail people for gas, they will notice, and they did, so they used alternatives (public transportation, bikes, etc…).
- Credit Crunch. The credit crunch in the US had a huge effect, people were paying their mortgages, and they just didn’t have enough money to fill their tanks. They stayed at home instead, or again used alternatives.
- The growing “I’m going green” sentiment. This is the weakest of the reasons, nevertheless, it’s very sustainable on the long run. People are now buying and driving hybrid cards (with government incentives) and/or using the alternatives.
The Credit Crunch argument will not be valid in the long run. On the other hand, #1 and #3 will always be remembered by people and they will act upon them.
I predict that oil will drop to $17 (you heard it here first, well, as I said, someone mentioned it a few years back), and even if OPEC (who claimed had nothing to do with the soaring prices) keeps on lowering the output. Oil will probably never, ever rise again.
Again, people are not stupid (especially in this day and age), and they’re tired from this blackmail game.
October 17, 2008 at 7:25 pm | In Musings about Work | Leave a Comment
Tags: charts, lager, lazy, out of body experience, stress, too much work, visio
I’m working so hard right now it’s not even funny! I’m working on multiple things on the same time, and unless I have an out of body experience soon, I think I’m going to collapse.
Well, I don’t think I’m going to collapse, I do love my work, but I love it more when I do nothing the whole day (yes, I’m lazy) pretending to be stressed and having a lager.
But now I really am stressed, the thing that I loath the most is creating those Visio charts, I usually give them to one of the designers, but now the ones I’m doing right now are very complex.
Oh well…
October 11, 2008 at 5:38 pm | In General Project Management | Leave a Comment
Tags: false commitments, financial crisis, good project manager, project management, project manager, saying no
I’ve just read this post about what a good Project Manager should be able to do: The Project Manager should be able to say “No”, “Make a deal not simply negotiate”, among others. I think you probably noticed that the word able is italics. The thing is sometimes, and let’s face it, we’re not able to “Say No” or “Make a deal”. As Project Managers, sometimes we are expected to make decisions that are not ours and we do not agree with, and sometimes we have to say “Yes” when “No” is much more appropriate. But why do we do that? Is it always lack of self-confidence? Or is it sometimes because we’ve had a series of unfortunate events (not the movie) in our project, and now we’re willing to do anything and to commit to anything to save our job and restore our reputation.
I think in these times, where no job is really safe (we all hope that this storm will pass by), “Saying No” might not be the best answer on the short run, but will it be on the long run? Will you always hide behind false commitments? And how long can you do it for, and at what expense? If you feel they want you gone, then you’re gone, if not sooner then later…
October 5, 2008 at 8:33 pm | In General Project Management | 3 Comments
Tags: agile, agile vs waterfall, project management, waterfall
No doubt this subject is beaten to death… But what was the outcome anyway?
I was reading an article on Tom Von Lamoen’s blog, about team responsibilities towards clients, the comments on this article diverted the subject to Agile vs Waterfall (mainly pro-agile), Alexander Arendar even suggested that Waterfall is dead.
But is it really dead? I’ve heard this comment multiple times, either in the blogosphere or face to face. Are big, non-IT, projects right now using Agile? I doubt it. Most people loath waterfall because of its inflexibilitiy, but is Agile really the replacement? Can the client be involved at all stages in any project? Can we have iterations in any project until we reach complete satisfaction?
Again, I doubt it.
I don’t think Waterfall is dead, nor is it struggling, it’s probably even growing, as Project Management is growing, and Project Managers are being hatched everywhere, with the word Waterfall in the back of their head…
